The Economic Effects in 2002 of Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) in Wisconsin

Wisconsin's 600,000 deer hunters will bear the brunt of the economic losses from chronic wasting disease (CWD) in the Wisconsin deer herd. Though studies have not been done to pinpoint a precise value, preliminary estimates place the losses to deer hunters at between $70 million and$100 million this fall. CWD will also cause deer hunters to spend less on their sport this year than they have in the past. However, the impacts of reduced hunter spending on the Wisconsin economy should not be too large. Losses to the deer hunting economy will be counterbalanced as resident hunters spend their money elsewhere in the economy. Some spending by nonresident hunters will be lost, but deer hunting is a very small part of the tourist economy. Nevertheless, some people in rural areas will suffer economically as fewer urban deer hunters spend money on the services they provide. If additional bad news about CWD is forthcoming before fall, the losses could be much larger.

The Economic Effects of Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) in Wisconsin

Wisconsin's 600,000 deer hunters will bear the brunt of the economic losses from chronic wasting disease (CWD) in the Wisconsin deer herd. Though studies have not been done to pinpoint these losses, under plausible assumptions, they could have amounted to between $58 million and$83 million in 2002. I would anticipate somewhat smaller losses in 2003, perhaps between $30 million and$53 million. CWD can also be expected to cause deer hunters to spend less on their sport than they have in the past. However, the impacts of reduced hunter spending on the Wisconsin economy should not be too large. Losses to the deer hunting economy will be counterbalanced as resident hunters who reduce expenditures spend their money elsewhere in the economy. Some spending by nonresident hunters will be lost, but deer hunting is a very small part of the tourist economy. Nevertheless, businesses that serve hunters are likely to feel the effects and this is especially true in rural areas as fewer urban deer hunters spend money on the services they provide. Additional costs are being borne by public agencies in Wisconsin as they try to cope with the disease. Little is known about impacts on deer and elk farms, on those who feed deer to facilitate viewing, and on feed businesses that cater to deer feeders.

Estimating Post-harvest Benefits from Increases in Commercial Fish Catches with Implications for Remediation of Impingement and Entrainment Losses at Power Plants

A variety of regulations may affect commercial fish catches. We take here as a case in point steps to reduce losses of aquatic organisms due to impingement and entrainment (I&E) at power plants. Methods to evaluate the benefits of such measures are needed for benefit-cost analysis. We use a new approach to estimating ex vessel demand by Holt and Bishop (2002) to address the portion of the benefits that occur post-harvest, that is, down the marketing chain after fishermen sell their catches. The model deals with the dockside prices and quantities for six major commercial species harvested from the U.S. Great Lakes. We use the model to explore the potential magnitude of post-harvest benefits for Great Lakes fisheries. We then turn to a possible approach to benefits transfer for cases where such a model is not available. A semi-realistic case example involving I&E losses to Great Lakes fisheries illustrates how benefits transfer would work.

Experience, Expectations and Hindsight: Evidence of a Cognitive Wedge in Stated Preference Retrospectives

This paper combines fishing trip decisions - made before observing trip outcomes - with responses to set of double-bounded dichotomous choice CV questions regarding the outcome of the trip, to explore cognitive elements of choice and their implications for decision modeling and welfare analysis. Extending the approach taken by McConnell et al. (1999), wherein the unobserved component of random utility is linked between the trip decision and the retrospective trip evaluation, we decompose the unobserved component into linked and independent elements, and make the linked component a function of cognitive factors hypothesized as affecting differences between the RP and SP responses. Results suggest that a significant "wedge" exists between the closely related trip decision and its retrospective valuation, and that this wedge is not fully explained by factors such as experience, recall, and unobserved time costs.

SENSITIVITY TO SCOPE: EVIDENCE FROM A CVM STUDY OF WETLANDS

Wetlands valuation is a situation in which CVM studies might be expected to fail scope tests. This paper reports results from a split-sample CVM study of Wisconsin wetlands. The survey employed a multiple-bounded, polychotomous-choice format, and compared WTP distributions using the method of convolutions. The survey demonstrated sensitivity to scope.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Estimating the Value of Variations in Anglers' Success Rates: An Application of the Multiple-Site Travel Cost Method

An estimation method is presented to measure sport fishermen's valuation of exogenous changes in fishing quality (catch rates). A theoretical model is initially presented to show how variations in prevailing catch rates influence an angler's valuation of recreational fishing. A two-stage estimation approach is suggested that capitalizes on the notion that angler consumer surplus is sensitive to changes in success rates. The procedure entails first estimating sportfishing values at qualitatively different fishing sites using a multiple-site travel cost approach. Afterward, the sensitivity of estimated values to different success rate levels is measured using a separate regression procedure. An empirical application of this two-stage method to Lake Michigan sportfishing is given. It is estimated that for Lake Michigan anglers who fish for trout and salmon, a 10% increase in success rates will increase average trip values by SUS 0.30.Environmental Economics and Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Risk and Uncertainty,